We consider inferring the causal effect of a treatment (intervention) on an outcome of interest in situations where there is potentially an unobserved confounder influencing both the treatment and the outcome. This is achievable by assuming access to two separate sets of control (proxy) measurements associated with treatment and outcomes, which are used to estimate treatment effects through a function termed the causal bridge (CB). We present a new theoretical perspective, associated assumptions for when estimating treatment effects with the CB is feasible, and a bound on the average error of the treatment effect when the CB assumptions are violated. From this new perspective, we then demonstrate how coupling the CB with an autoencoder architecture allows for the sharing of statistical strength between observed quantities (proxies, treatment, and outcomes), thus improving the quality of the CB estimates. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach relative to state-of-the-art methodology for causal inference with proxy measurements.

We consider the problem of estimating a causal effect in a multi-domain setting. The causal effect of interest is confounded by an unobserved confounder and can change between the different domains. We assume that we have access to a proxy of the hidden confounder and that all variables are discrete or categorical. We propose methodology to estimate the causal effect in the target domain, where we assume to observe only the proxy variable. Under these conditions, we prove identifiability (even when treatment and response variables are continuous). We introduce two estimation techniques, prove consistency, and derive confidence intervals. The theoretical results are supported by simulation studies and a real-world example studying the causal effect of website rankings on consumer choices.

Causal inference is essential for developing and evaluating medical interventions, yet real-world medical datasets are often difficult to access due to regulatory barriers. This makes synthetic data a potentially valuable asset that enables these medical analyses, along with the development of new inference methods themselves. Generative models can produce synthetic data that closely approximate real data distributions, yet existing methods do not consider the unique challenges that downstream causal inference tasks, and specifically those focused on treatments, pose. We establish a set of desiderata that synthetic data containing treatments should satisfy to maximise downstream utility: preservation of (i) the covariate distribution, (ii) the treatment assignment mechanism, and (iii) the outcome generation mechanism. Based on these desiderata, we propose a set of evaluation metrics to assess such synthetic data. Finally, we present STEAM: a novel method for generating Synthetic data for Treatment Effect Analysis in Medicine that mimics the data-generating process of data containing treatments and optimises for our desiderata. We empirically demonstrate that STEAM achieves state-of-the-art performance across our metrics as compared to existing generative models, particularly as the complexity of the true data-generating process increases.

Estimating causal effects from spatiotemporal observational data is essential in public health, environmental science, and policy evaluation, where randomized experiments are often infeasible. Existing approaches, however, either rely on strong structural assumptions or fail to handle key challenges such as interference, spatial confounding, temporal carryover, and time-varying confounding--where covariates are influenced by past treatments and, in turn, affect future ones. We introduce the GST-UNet (G-computation Spatio-Temporal UNet), a theoretically grounded neural framework that combines a U-Net-based spatiotemporal encoder with regression-based iterative G-computation to estimate location-specific potential outcomes under complex intervention sequences. GST-UNet explicitly adjusts for time-varying confounders and captures non-linear spatial and temporal dependencies, enabling valid causal inference from a single observed trajectory in data-scarce settings.

Estimating treatment effects is crucial for personalized decision-making in medicine, but this task faces unique challenges in clinical practice. At training time, models for estimating treatment effects are typically trained on well-structured medical datasets that contain detailed patient information. However, at inference time, predictions are often made using textual descriptions (e.g., descriptions with self-reported symptoms), which are incomplete representations of the original patient information. In this work, we make three contributions.

The estimation of average treatment effects (ATEs), defined as the difference in expected outcomes between treatment and control groups, is a central topic in causal inference. This study develops semiparametric efficient estimators for ATE in a setting where only a treatment group and an unlabeled group--consisting of units whose treatment status is unknown--are observed. This scenario constitutes a variant of learning from positive and unlabeled data (PU learning) and can be viewed as a special case of ATE estimation with missing data. For this setting, we derive the semiparametric efficiency bounds, which characterize the lowest achievable asymptotic variance for regular estimators. We then construct semiparametric efficient ATE estimators that attain these bounds. Our results contribute to the literature on causal inference with missing data and weakly supervised learning.

Synthetic tabular data are often evaluated by distributional similarity, privacy distance, or train-on-synthetic-test-on-real predictive performance, but these criteria do not ensure validity for causal inference. We show that fully generative tabular synthesizers, including GAN- and LLM-based models, can preserve predictive utility while distorting average treatment effect (ATE) estimates. The failure is structural: ATE preservation requires both a realistic covariate law and an accurate treatment-effect contrast, whereas prediction loss penalizes treatment-effect error only through an overlap-weighted term. We formalize this mismatch through sensitivity and loss-decomposition results, and identify an analogous decomposition in block-level next-token prediction under log loss. Motivated by the tabular causal analysis, we propose a hybrid synthetic-data framework that generates covariates while modeling treatment and outcome mechanisms separately, allowing causal-purpose treatment assignment such as randomized synthetic assignment. We evaluate this framework in three settings: ATE preservation under fully generative versus hybrid synthesis, targeted augmentation for practical positivity problems, and synthetic simulation engines for comparing OR, IPW, AIPW, and TMLE before real-data analysis. Across synthetic and ACTG experiments, hybrid synthesis improves causal fidelity relative to fully generative baselines; LLM-based hybrid synthesis is often more faithful than CTGAN for ATE preservation and finite-sample estimator benchmarking.

We develop a Bayesian tree ensemble model to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects in censored survival data with high-dimensional covariates. Instead of imposing sparsity through the tree structure, we place a horseshoe prior directly on the step heights to achieve adaptive global-local shrinkage. This strategy allows flexible regularisation and reduces noise. We develop a reversible jump Gibbs sampler to accommodate the non-conjugate horseshoe prior within the tree ensemble framework. We show through extensive simulations that the method accurately estimates treatment effects in high-dimensional covariate spaces, at various sparsity levels, and under non-linear treatment effect functions. We further illustrate the practical utility of the proposed approach by a re-analysis of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) survival data from The Cancer Genome Atlas.

Causal inference is essential for data-driven decision-making, as it aims to uncover causal relationships from observational data. However, identifying causality remains challenging due to the potential for confounding and the distinction between correlation and causation. While recent advances in causal machine learning and matching algorithms have improved estimation accuracy, these methods often face trade-offs between interpretability and computational efficiency. This paper proposes a novel approach that combines a tree-based discretization technique, tailored for causal inference, with an integer linear programming-based matching algorithm. The discretization ensures approximately linear relationships for control datasets within strata, enabling effective matching, while the optimization framework optimizes for global balance. The resulting algorithm yields computational efficiency and less biased ATT estimates compared to state-of-the-art algorithms. Empirical evaluations demonstrate the proposed method's practical advantages over existing techniques in causal inference scenarios.

Causal effect estimation from observational data requires careful adjustment for confounding. Classical estimators such as inverse probability weighting and augmented inverse probability weighting are effective under favorable model specification, but may become unstable when treatment assignment and outcome mechanisms are complex, non-linear, and high-dimensional. Machine learning and representation learning approaches improve flexibility, yet joint training can allow outcome-related information to influence treatment-side representations, which is undesirable from a causal perspective. We propose MOCA (Modular One-way Causal Attention), a transformer-based framework that separates treatment and outcome modeling through a modular design, and performs confounder adjustment using a one-way attention mechanism. A cutting-feedback strategy, implemented via gradient detachment, prevents the outcome loss from updating the treatment module. This design preserves directional information flow while retaining the representational power of transformer architectures for causal inference. Across multiple simulated scenarios, including linear, nonlinear, heavy-tailed, hidden confounding, and high-dimensional settings, MOCA shows competitive or improved performance relative to IPW, AIPW, X-learner, TARNet, and DragonNet. We further illustrate the method on the Infant Health and Development Program dataset and the Dehejia-Wahba dataset as real-world benchmarks. These results suggest that modular attention with one-way information flow provides a promising and interpretable direction for causal inference with modern deep learning models.